March 2024 : the real estate, tourism and hospitality press review

Last update : 30 September 2024

HoliProject presents its March press review. Our aim is to help you identify, grasp and understand the news that has marked the property, tourism and investment sectors in recent weeks. On the agenda today: the commercial property crisis and its impact, the future of office space, new trends in tourism and the problems faced by players in the logistics property sector in France.

Commercial property : prolonged crisis for European banks

“Banks must prepare for a crisis that will last for several years”, said José Manuel Campa, head of the European Banking Authority (EBA), in an interview with Handelsblatt. This situation has now been identified as a major risk for banks, especially those with the greatest exposure to commercial property. Tensions are heightening, particularly with the crisis at Austrian property group Signa. However, José Manuel Campa is adamant that there is no “systemic danger” for the banking system as a whole, either in Europe or in the United States (L’Essentiel).

Shopping centres : a sector in the throes of change

A study by Knight Frank confirms that no new shopping centres will have been built in France by 2023. The reason: a profound change in consumer habits. “Lessors of shopping areas are finding it difficult to get their customers to return, particularly since the health crisis,” says Catherine SaintGeniest. In addition, the regulations governing commercial leases and the objective of zero land artificialisation by 2050 pose an additional challenge and restrict the creation of new retail space. As a result, project developers now need to consider more appropriate approaches to adapt to this new regulatory and environmental situation. (Option Finance)

Real estate : converting offices into housing

In the Paris Region, where a significant proportion of office space is concentrated, almost 5 million square metres are now considered obsolete. Given this situation, converting this space into housing is emerging as a key strategy for increasing the supply of residential space. This approach, supported by the government as a pillar of its housing recovery policy, responds to a number of contemporary challenges. In particular, it makes it possible to get round the restrictions associated with ZAN: Zero Net Artificialisation of Land. It is also a way of responding to the need to adapt workspaces to the new reality of teleworking and office sharing, and ultimately to a reduction in overall requirements. (Les Echos)

Tourism : the key to better regulation of tourist flows

Destination Dupe. This is the travel trend that’s on the rise in Europe. The concept is to promote lesser-known alternatives to encourage sustainable tourism and reduce the pressure on certain popular destinations. Countries such as Greece and Slovenia are actively supporting this initiative. This approach is helping to combat overtourism, at a time when many cities are being forced to raise tourist taxes to regulate the flow of tourists in high season. What’s in it for tourists? They are invited to discover new destinations, at a more affordable cost and while preserving the environment. (Euronews)

Office property : how can we adapt to new uses?

What is the future of the office? Victor Carreau, CEO of Comet, advocates a hybrid model, combining teleworking and face-to-face work. From this observation, he imagines the evolution of office property and detects the emergence of new uses. “The office where you have to go five days a week to sit behind a screen is no longer the solution”. As a result, up to 25% of office space in the Paris region is set to disappear. And yet the need remains, but the function of the office is changing. “Production will increasingly be done from home. On the other hand, most collaboration will be face-to-face”, he confides. So, from now on, the office must be “infinitely more attractive” than the home. The only dilemma is how to organise the space to meet these new expectations (L’Express).

Office property : companies take the lead

Companies in Luxembourg are transforming their workspaces. Among them, the law firm Stibbe has fitted out its offices at the Cloche d’Or, with one ambition in mind: to promote employee well-being, embrace new ways of working and meet the emerging demands of employees. This approach is essential at a time when the redefinition of workspaces is becoming a central issue. Yet some companies are still wary. “From the employer’s point of view, there is still a real concern that the hybridisation of work will undermine productivity,” confides Emna Rekik of JLL Luxembourg. As a result, they are slow to create environments that encourage collaboration and individual concentration. (Virgule)

Tourism : the return of business travellers

The business travel sector is on the up again, and looks set to surpass all forecasts, with a global market expected to reach 414 billion dollars in 2025, compared with 391 billion in 2019. Hotel groups such as Accor, Best Western, Louvre Hôtels and Hyatt are seeing remarkable growth, thanks to a significant return of business travellers. This is particularly true of American business travellers. Even the experts and major players in the sector are surprised. I had said that we would lose 25% of business travellers, and I was wrong”, confides the CEO. I was wrong,” says Sébastien Bazin, of the Accor Group. (Les Echos)

Commercial property : banks’ exposure a cause for concern

Falling demand for commercial property and rising interest rates are highlighting the exposure of the world’s banks to risky loans. The reason: investors are struggling to repay their loans, putting the entire banking system at risk. Among the players currently in difficulty is Swiss bank Julius Baer. But Julius Baer is not alone. With USD 2,000 billion of loans coming due soon, and a trillion considered to be in distress, financial stability is under threat, calling for heightened surveillance by regulators and potential intervention by central banks. The aim is to avoid a hard landing for the market. (RTS)

Tourism : the new trend towards child-free offers

Le concept Adult Only gagne en popularité dans le secteur du tourisme. Des hôtels, des restaurants, des campings, et même des compagnies aériennes comme Corendon Airlines, proposent désormais des espaces exclusivement réservés aux adultes. Cette tendance est désormais bien établie dans certains pays : Espagne, Italie et Grèce. Elle commence également à émerger en France. En tout, à travers le monde, 1544 établissements ont adopté ce principe en 2023, contre 682 en 2016. La raison : une demande accrue des touristes pour des vacances sans enfant, avec calme et sérénité. Cette pratique reste marginale et parfaitement légale. (TF1 Info)

Commercial real estate : concerns persist worldwide

The recent problems at New York Community Bancorp are once again raising concerns. On a global scale, what impact will the commercial property crisis have? Banks are under pressure, and regional institutions are particularly exposed. In total, more than a trillion dollars in commercial mortgages are due to mature over the next two years. Against this backdrop, marked by a significant rise in interest rates, experts are advising US investors to diversify their assets and ensure that their deposits are protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Caution remains the watchword. (Financial Review)

Tourism : Club Med back in the black

In 2023, Club Med has achieved an historic performance, with a successful move upmarket that has boosted sales to close to €2 billion. This is the sign of a strategy that is paying off. This success, boosted by the upturn in international tourism, particularly in Asia, is reflected in a 16% increase in the number of customers. So what next? With 97% of its resorts now classified as top-of-the-range, Club Med plans to convert the entire fleet by April 2024, and remains optimistic about its forecasts for the coming months (La Tribune).

Logistics real estate : how can the shortage of space be overcome ?

The logistics real estate sector is facing major changes. With the slowdown in e-commerce and pressure for greener development, the boom in mega warehouses is coming to a halt. Approvals for new projects are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, not least because of increasingly complex regulations and incessant attacks on administrative tribunals. Added to this is a fall in the vacancy rate for warehouses, which naturally leads to a shortage of space. Developers and investors are therefore faced with the need to reinvent themselves. Possible solutions include redeveloping brownfield sites and vertical construction. (Le Nouvel Économiste)

Tourism : the confidence of European travellers

European travellers are confident about their travel spending power in 2024, despite continued pressure from the cost of living. This is the finding of a new report from Accor, based on a survey of 8,000 travellers in seven European countries. More than half of those surveyed expect their travel budgets to be higher than in 2023. Another point to remember: destinations in southern Europe remain the preferred choice, and sustainability has a strong influence on travel decisions. In fact, 71% of travellers consider the ecological aspect to be decisive. Other key findings from the study include two signals for the tourism industry to take into account: solo travel and holidays with pets are gaining in popularity. (Hospitality Net)

Commercial property : heading for a tipping point in 2024 ?

Property values continue to fall. It could mark a critical turning point for commercial property this year. According to Capital Economics, a further 10% fall is expected. This could lead to a wave of bankruptcies, forced sales and mergers. Kiran Raichura, economist at Capital Economics, warns: “We are likely to see turbulence in a sector that is already under pressure from tighter credit conditions. With the democratisation of teleworking and the rise in interest rates, office space owners are the first to be affected. Their net operating income and the value of their buildings are likely to be significantly affected. (Insider Today)

Date de première publication : 28 March 2024

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