January 2024: the real estate, tourism and hospitality press review

Last update : 26 February 2024

It's time for our first press review of the year. We have selected the news, studies and speeches that have marked the property, tourism and investment sectors in recent weeks, both in France and abroad. The aim is to identify the underlying trends, issues and major transformations that will help us to better understand and grasp market developments. At the heart of the discussions these days: the economic outlook for 2024, the turbulence in the commercial property market and the tourism dynamic in Europe.

Commercial Real Estate: What is the Situation in the UK in 2024 ?
In 2024, in the United Kingdom, the commercial real estate market is showing signs of recovery despite a politically uncertain context, marked by the upcoming elections in the country and in the United States. Despite recent challenges, which stem from inflation and high interest rates, an improvement is indeed expected. This is largely due to the decrease in borrowing costs and an expected reduction in vacancy rates. However, property prices remain high. In this context, opportunistic investors should focus on high-yield assets with strong growth potential, such as logistics real estate. (Savills)
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Tourism : trends and new uses are visible
What trends will emerge this year ? Weak signals give us a glimpse of how the sector will evolve over time. One predominant theme is the development of sustainable, local and responsible tourism. Travellers are showing a growing interest in environmentally-friendly modes of transport. Rail travel is favoured. Cycle tourism continues to grow. In other words, travel habits are changing. The same is true of usage, with major and cumulative transformations. The questions are multiplying. Among them: what concrete impact will artificial intelligence have on the booking process ? (Le Figaro)
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Real Estate : What About the European Market in 2024 ?
European commercial real estate could recover in 2024, boosted by the growth of the tourism sector, but also, more surprisingly, by the democratization of artificial intelligence. The reason is simple: these emerging technologies require robust infrastructures and promote the development of spaces dedicated to innovation. These trends thus compensate for weakened markets, such as office real estate. Of course, the period is uncertain for investors. However, these new opportunities are a source of optimism. They should also benefit countries like the United Kingdom or Denmark. (Euronews)
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Commercial property : forecasts from Société Foncière de Lyon
Aude Grant, of Société Foncière de Lyon (SFL), outlines the far-reaching changes that await the commercial property market in the months and years ahead. “Offices are going to continue to evolve, and everyone is going to benefit,” she says in an interview. During the discussion, she also highlighted the significant change in the use value of workspaces, which are gradually moving from being a commodity to a strategic element for companies. Another point raised was the ecological issue and its impact on the market. “No Prime building can do without exemplary environmental ambitions”. (IFOP)
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Investment: Blackstone Asserts Itself in the European Real Estate Market
In 2023, Blackstone, the world’s largest commercial real estate owner, strengthened and accelerated its investments in Europe. The company has indeed seized opportunities in a disrupted market. It now allocates more than 55% of its investments in European real estate, compared to 20 to 30% previously. More specifically, with $40 billion in reserve, Blackstone is currently targeting sectors with strong cash flow growth. This is particularly the case for logistics warehouses, data centers, and the residential sector. (Financial Times)
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Office property : market update for Paris Region
In Paris Region, the office property market is marking time, with investment levels comparable to 2009. However, contrasts are emerging, and investors are seeing encouraging signs that counterbalance the prevailing gloom. For example, 526,000 m² of office space was let in the last quarter. At the same time, the figures reveal another trend: mid-market transactions have been particularly buoyant in recent months. The reason: companies have rapidly adapted to changes in working patterns by favouring smaller offices. By their very nature, they are shunning premises larger than 5,000 sq. m. (MySweetImmo)
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Commercial Real Estate : Signs of Recovery and Optimism
After a complex period, marked by an increase in borrowing costs and a fall in prices, the global commercial real estate market is showing undeniable signs of recovery. According to some experts, we might be at the beginning of a new cycle. According to Jones Lang LaSalle, the increasing clarity of real estate values and the need to manage imminent debt maturities should indeed stimulate transactions in the coming months. However, vigilance will be required regarding the evolution of interest rates. In any case, for the moment, investors remain cautious. They will need a longer period of stability to fully release the capital on hold. (Bloomberg News)
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Tourism : a rebound in Paris has an impact on commercial property
The Rugby World Cup and the Olympic Games are actively contributing to the upturn in tourism in Paris. As a direct result, the capital is attracting international retailers, with the arrival of 37 foreign brands. This result, which exceeds the annual average for the last decade, demonstrates a fundamental trend. This is underlined by the Knight Frank report. By the end of November 2023, €1.3 billion had already been invested in the Paris retail property market. At the same time, the vacancy rate for these properties has improved, falling from 6.5% to 5.2% (LSA Conso).
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Commercial property : a mixed year ahead
The commercial property market continues to suffer the consequences of the pandemic. In the United States, 2023 was a particularly complex year to manage. The main reasons: inflation and mortgage rates. But what about the months ahead? Economist Ermengarde Jabir predicts a mixed year for commercial property. This will particularly affect office space, which is facing high vacancy rates and is being directly impacted by changes in usage. So how will investors react? The experts are unanimous: quality will prevail over quantity. As a result, American and international buyers will tend to favour green buildings. (Fortune)
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Investment : which is the most expensive ski resort ?
Val d’Isère is still the most expensive ski resort in France, with prices of €14,758 per square metre. These are the findings of the latest Fnaim survey. Despite the climatic and regulatory challenges, demand for property in the mountains remains strong, particularly in the Alps, where the average price is €4672 per square metre. This figure, which is constantly rising, has increased by 35% since 2014. However, one challenge remains for owners, investors and local authorities: the issue of energy efficiency, with a large proportion of homes performing poorly in energy terms. (My info)
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Tourism : encouraging forecasts for 2024
The major Swiss travel agencies are genuinely optimistic about 2024, according to a survey conducted by Travel Inside. The majority of them are forecasting record sales and profits, exceeding the pre-Covid era. DER Touristik Suisse is predicting a 20% increase in advance bookings, while Hotelplan Group and Knecht Travel Group are expecting very encouraging results. For its part, Globetrotter Group prefers to remain cautious. The company expects last year’s performance to be consolidated. Conclusion: the lights are green for the tourism sector in Switzerland. (SwissInfo)
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Commercial Real Estate: A Changing Era for Shopping Centers?
In the United States, major store chains are increasingly moving away from traditional malls in favor of outdoor shopping centers and shopping galleries. This trend, motivated by the pursuit of shorter and more convenient shopping experiences, suggests difficult times ahead for malls, which have already experienced a 4% decrease in foot traffic in 2023 compared to the previous year. However, some examples contradict this reality. This is the case for some upscale shopping centers, such as Simon Property Group and Macerich, which claim an increase in leasing”.(The Wall Street Journal)
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Investment : SCPI Upêka unveils its strategy
Victor Piriou unveils the strategy of the SCPI Upêka, recently launched to adapt to changes in the European property market. With no legacy of previous assets, Upêka stands out for its flexibility and focus. It is aimed at a broad public, with diversified investment options from as little as €200 and no subscription commission. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and rising interest rates, Upêka identifies opportunities, particularly in office property in countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands. However, it remains cautious about the French market. (MySweetImmo)
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Commercial property : heading for a tipping point in 2024 ?
Property values continue to fall. It could mark a critical turning point for commercial property this year. According to Capital Economics, a further 10% fall is expected. This could lead to a wave of bankruptcies, forced sales and mergers. Kiran Raichura, economist at Capital Economics, warns: “We are likely to see turbulence in a sector that is already under pressure from tighter credit conditions. With the democratisation of teleworking and the rise in interest rates, office space owners are the first to be affected. Their net operating income and the value of their buildings are likely to be significantly affected. (Insider Today)
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Date de première publication : 26 February 2024

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