May 2024 : the real estate, tourism and hospitality press review

Last update : 30 May 2024

HoliProject vous présente sa revue de presse du mois de mai pour identifier les actualités, les prises de parole et les tendances qui ont marqué, au cours des dernières semaines et à l’échelle internationale, les marchés de l’immobilier, de l’investissement et du tourisme. Parmi les questions du moment : devons-nous envisager une reprise de l’immobilier commercial, après des trimestres compliqués, qui ont vu les transactions et les valeurs des actifs diminuer de manière significative ?

Commercial Real Estate: Toward a Reduction in Space
As remote work becomes more widespread, many companies are reducing their office spaces. According to JLL data, 48% of clients in major markets like the UK, Germany, and France plan to decrease their space within the next five years. This trend is likely to lead to an unprecedented wave of property vacancies, significantly impacting the sector. The vacant spaces could transform into “creativity pockets” or “hybrid destinations,” combining retail, services, and green spaces. However, converting obsolete buildings remains complex and costly. (BBC)
Commercial Real Estate: Mixed Outlook for the Second Half
The commercial real estate outlook for the second half of 2024 remains generally positive. The residential, industrial, and retail sectors continue to perform well despite high-interest rates. However, offices remain a weak point with continuously rising vacancy rates. Overall, Victor Calanog from Manulife Investment Management predicts a year marked by significant price developments, with a 25 to 30% increase in transactions, loan origins, and CMBS issuances compared to the lows of 2023. (JP Morgan)
Commercial Real Estate: Transaction Slump in Europe
Despite hopes of recovery, commercial real estate transactions in Europe hit their lowest level in 13 years at the beginning of the year, due to the lack of imminent interest rate cuts. Transaction volumes, which reached €34.5 billion in the first quarter, fell by 26% compared to the previous year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of decline. Offices were particularly affected, with a 37% decrease in values since their peak in 2022. Wealthy investors, less reliant on debt, now dominate the market. (Financial Times)
Tourism: Europeans Will Travel Massively This Summer
Despite rising prices, Europeans plan to travel massively this summer of 2024. According to the latest report by the European Travel Commission (ETC), 75% of Europeans intend to travel between May and October, representing a 3% increase compared to last year. Southern European destinations, such as Italy, Spain, and France, are particularly popular among tourists. Their main factors of choice include safety, good weather, and cost. Seniors remain the most enthusiastic about traveling in the coming months. (European Travel Commission)
Real estate: new SCPIs benefit from the property market
The property market is undergoing a major transformation, and new players have recently decided to launch their own real estate investment trusts. Following on from Iroko Zen and Remake Live, three new diversified SCPIs have been launched in less than a year: Upêka by Axipit REP, Alta Convictions by Altarea, and Osmo Energie by Mata Capital. These funds, which are looking for opportunities in the midst of the crisis, invest mainly in commercial property: offices, retail, logistics and hotels. Their annual return net of fees varies between 5.5% and 6.5%. However, some of the associated costs deserve particular attention. (L’Express)
Investment: mortgage arrears on the rise
Delinquencies on commercial real estate and consumer loans rose at the end of 2023. They now exceed pre-pandemic levels, according to a Fed report published on Friday 10 May. Commercial real estate loan defaults reached 0.9%, a five-year high, while consumer loan defaults exceeded 1% for the first time since early 2020. As a result, by 2024, $206 billion of commercial real estate loans will need to be refinanced in a high interest rate environment. ‘Banks have increased their provisions for credit losses in anticipation of a further deterioration in asset quality’, it adds. (Le Figaro)
Logistics Real Estate: Increasing Demand in Australia
In Australia, sustained demand for warehouses and data centers has led investors to inject over a billion dollars into industrial real estate transactions within a month. Barings and the pension fund Rest acquired an industrial portfolio worth $780 million from Goodman Group, comprising 12 warehouses across the country. Shaun Hannah from Barings emphasizes that this acquisition “reflects a positive outlook on industrial real estate in Australia.” Other funds, such as ISPT and Dexus, have also completed significant transactions, highlighting the growing appeal of this sector, driven by the e-commerce boom and local supply chains. (The Sydney Morning Herald)
Office property: towards a race for quality and attractiveness
With the democratisation of teleworking, office property has entered a new era, marked by a race for quality at the expense of volume. That, at least, is the view of Mathieu Lalou of Spliit. For organisations, ‘it’s not just a question of finding something a little smaller, but above all of finding an office in a better location’, he explains. This trend is reflected in a significant fall in the number of square metres placed, particularly in the Paris region. As a result, property companies are being forced to adapt by marketing service assets in well-located buildings, often in city centres, that act as company hotels and meet tenants’ new expectations. (Option Finance)
Tourist real estate: a classic asset class in the making
Béatrice Guedj, Head of Research and Innovation at Swiss Life AM France, highlights the resilience of the tourism property sector, particularly in France. In 2023, the French hotel sector has effectively surpassed pre-crisis levels, with occupancy rates up 3% and average prices up 7%. We are seeing strong domestic and international demand, bolstered by the impact of the forthcoming Olympic Games. Thanks to solid fundamentals and a diversified offering, the market remains attractive to investors, despite rising financing costs. ‘In France, the hotel sector will rapidly become a traditional asset class,’ says Béatrice Guedj. (PierrePapier)
Chinese government intervenes to stabilise property market
Faced with an unprecedented debt crisis in the property sector, China has taken ambitious measures to revive the market. The government has reduced the minimum down payment rate to 15% for first-time buyers and is considering buying up unsold commercial properties to turn them into affordable housing. ‘These policies send very positive signals and will be very helpful in boosting market sentiment,’ said Yan Yuejin, Director of Research at the Yiju Institute. Shares in Chinese developers rose sharply following the announcements, reflecting the market’s optimism. (France 24)
Logistics property: marked contrasts in the first quarter
The French logistics property market has had a difficult start to the year, with just 491,100 sq. m let, a fall of 50% compared with 2023. The Île-de-France region has suffered particularly badly, with take-up down 57%. Didier Terrier, of Arthur Loyd Logistique, notes that this trend is consistent with the trends observed since September 2023, due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties. However, there are signs of hope, with the prospect of lower key interest rates and improved financing conditions. ‘Some people see logistics as an asset with a future, and are counting on rental growth in the years ahead’, adds Nicolas Chomette (VoxLog).
Commercial property: the concerns of the European Central Bank
Commercial property is now considered to be the weak link in the eurozone’s financial system, according to a report published this month by the European Central Bank (ECB). Companies in the sector are facing a triple threat: rising borrowing costs, falling demand and a significant rise in the price of building materials. As a result, loan default rates are rising and losses are looming for banks, insurers and funds. The ECB also points out that commercial property prices have fallen by 8.7% in 2023 and could continue to fall, particularly in the office sector. (Zone Bourse)
Commercial Real Estate in Europe: Towards Price Stabilization
After two years of decline, the European commercial real estate market is showing early signs of improvement in the first quarter of 2024. According to Altus Group, the decrease in values has slowed to 0.5% compared to 3.4% in the previous quarter. Phil Tily, Senior Vice President of the company, highlights that value declines have significantly moderated across all sectors. For example, office space saw its decline slow to 0.8% from 5.3% previously. This stabilization is supported by rising rents and a probable decrease in interest rates in the coming months. (Euronews)
Date de première publication : 30 May 2024